Online Poker Player Tracking

Since no-limit Texas hold em has been popular, there have been thousands (literally) of variations on a preflop strategy that emphasizes playing tight in terms of playing only big cards and pocket pairs. There is a big fallacy in this that is exposed with various points gathered with poker probability, and the key to a preflop strategy that is capable of beating today’s tougher cash games and tournaments is the ability to exploit this fallacy. The following is the basic idea.

If a tight player open raises in early position and it folds to you in late position, which hand would you rather have: pocket Nines, Ace-Jack, or Ten-Nine suited? If you said pocket Nines because you would like to set mine, realize that you are only hitting a set once in every eight and a half times you call. If you said Ace-Jack because you would like to play high cards, keep in mind that if your opponent has pocket Aces, pocket Jacks, Ace-King, or Ace-Queen that you are dominated and even if you hit the flop you will probably either win a small pot or lose a big one. So what about Ten-Nine suited?

The fallacy exposed with poker probability is as follows: the middle pairs like pocket Nines and big cards like Ace-Jack hit the flop relatively unoften, but when you do hit, the strength of your hand is usually set in stone. That is, either you are forced to take lot of pressure in the case of a set, or you cannot take hardly any pressure like if we flopped a pair of Aces with Ace-Jack in the previous example. But with a suited connector, you don’t have to make a pair to hit the flop extremely hard. You can make straights, flushes, and all kinds of simple draws and combo draws to give you a super flexible hand to play. And most importantly, your opponent will have no idea what you have. If they like to bluff, you can call them down with your minor holdings, and if they like to call, you can value bet them with your showdown-ready hands that you hit fairly often. The point is that poker probability shows us that we are more likely to hit hands and draws with suited connectors than any other hand.

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