Online Poker Player Tracking » magicholdem http://pokertracking.org Online Poker Information Sat, 31 Jul 2010 08:09:31 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 Learning the rule of 2/4 to estimate out odds http://pokertracking.org/learning-the-rule-of-24-to-estimate-out-odds http://pokertracking.org/learning-the-rule-of-24-to-estimate-out-odds#comments Mon, 01 Feb 2010 20:10:48 +0000 admin http://pokertracking.org/?p=2600 Wondering how some poker players seem to know whether to raise, check or fold after the flop? Learn the rule of 2/4 or 2-4 to help you figure out your out odds on the fly. First, let’s see how to determine your odds the regular way:

1. Determine which cards you need to make your highest winning hand. Let’s say you’ve got Kd and 10h in your hand. The flop shows Ks, 10d, and 7h. You need either a king or a ten to finish your hand. This means you have four outs (Kh, Kc, 10s, 10c).
2. Your chance of getting one of the four outs on the turn is equal to 4/47, which equals .085 or 8.5%. We use 47 because we have two cards in our hands and there are three cards on the table. Even though players have other cards, their cards are counted into the total probability of you getting the card you want next.
3. If you did not get your card, your chance of getting one of the four outs on the river is equal to 4/46, which equals .087 or 8.7%.
4. What we want to know after the flop is what is the chance that I might get my card at either the turn or the river? To find that probability, we need to look at the probability that the cards you want will not show up in either cases Subtract each probability from 1 and then multiply the two new probabilities. The answer is now .16 or 16%. After the flop, you have a 16% chance of getting your hand.

Okay, you’re thinking that would be insane to figure out during a poker game. If you don’t have a poker calculator to help you work out your poker odds, you can try using the rule of 2/4 or 2-4 to help you out.

* Before the turn, you take the number of outs you have and multiply it by 4. Divide by 100 to get a rough estimate of your chance of getting an out.
* Before the river only, take the number of outs you have and multiply it by 2. Divide by 100 to get a rough estimate of your chance of getting an out.

Let’s see if our 2/4 rule works for our example:

* Before the turn, we have 4 outs. Four outs x 4 = 16. Divide by 100 = .16 or 16%. Looks good.
* Before the river only, take 4 outs x 2 = 8. Divide by 100 = .08 or 8%. Close enough to the 8.7% we worked out the long way.

Try using your 2/4 rule when working your outs poker odds. Your betting strategy should benefit now that you have an easier way to estimate your odds of hitting the card(s) you need for a winning hand.

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